Kentucky Derby

DERBY 2009

Here are the horses I see as the prime contenders to WIN the race:

13 I Want Revenge This is the fastest horse, he has won on the dirt, and he has won on both coasts. His running style fits this race and his Apr. 28 workout at Churchill was sharp. He fits the profile of previous Derby winners and is a dual qualifier (related to distance breeding and accomplishment). Only concern is 19 yr. old jockey (Talamo), but the great ones are often great early. This horse deserves to be the favorite, but 3-1 is not that attractive for a horse that has not dominated to this point like Big Brown did last year.

16 Pioneerof the Nile Another California horse that has been winning big races, but has not raced on dirt (has won on turf and poly). He was beating I Want Revenge this winter in California on poly, but his speed numbers have not improved as much since then. Tough to say how poly impacts the speed numbers. Sire Empire Maker finished 2nd to Funny Cide in the Derby and came back to beat him in the Belmont. Auxilary gate start doesn't help, but this one has a great chance if he likes dirt. Also a dual qualifier. 5-1 morning line odds looks fair.

11 Chocolate Candy Another California horse that has not raced on dirt. Doesn't have quite the record of the first two, but has been winning. Last was a close 2nd to Pioneerof the Nile at Santa Anita. He is the 3rd of 4 dual qualifiers, and I can't believe his 20-1 odds. Fits the Giacomo profile, and will be charging hard down the stretch. Strong Churchill work on Apr. 27. Definite contender.

6 Friesan Fire Yes, I am aware of horses outside of California, and this one has won on the dirt. Three straight wins in Louisiana, and an eye-popping workout on Apr. 27 at Churchill. NOT a dual qualifier, but excellent breeding and has the racing background to fit with Derby contenders. Has had an unusually long 7 week rest since last race, and making a bigger distance stretch than the other contenders. 5-1 odds, and this one would be more appealing at 8-1 or higher.

Others to consider. While I think the winner will come from my prime contenders list, this group has a legitimate chance to win or finish in the money at long odds.

10 Regal Ransom Longshot alert. This horse won at Saratoga, raced once in California, and shipped to the United Arab Emirates for the winter. He won the UAE Derby in March, and his Churchill workouts have been great. No horse has ever won the Derby shipping from the middle east, but this one has a chance. Same sire as Funny Cide, and the 30-1 odds may end up higher. Definite threat to be in the money.

7 Papa Clem Has won on dirt and poly, including quality stakes score in Arkansas last race. Doesn't quite fit the "winner" profile, but strong breeding and 2nd place finishes to Pioneer and Friesan, along with his recent stakes win, show he is competitive with this group. 20-1.

1 West Side Bernie Last of the dual qualifiers, and was 2nd last time out to I Want Revenge. Hasn't won since September and inside post position not favorable in this race. 30-1 odds make him worth a consideration, but would be a little surprised if he is a major factor.

Is there anything to like about the other 13 horses?

Yes, but not enough for me to consider risking my mint julip money. Dunkirk has top breeding and was bought for $3.7 million. He is lightly raced and doesn't fit the profile of past winners. Not worth the 4-1 odds here. I think he will be a top horse...after he gets more experience. General Quarters, Musket Man, and Advice are all coming off stakes wins, but I don't think any of them have the speed or the profile to be serious threats here. Their wins, however, have moved their odds to the 20-1 range for horses that should probably be 40-1. Hold Me Back and Mr. Hot Stuff have good trainer/jockey combinations, but just haven't run to the level of the others at this point. The other seven have too many factors against them (post position, profile, etc.) or just simply don't belong here.

A tip of the cap to The Pamplemousse who is injured, but may have been my top pick. Look for him racing later this year.

Good Luck to Everyone!

Pirates

A friend asked the other day about why pirates are not called terrorists. My first thought was that it's because we have a romanticized view of swashbuckling buccaneers swinging onto a ship's deck. Pirates are really nothing more than armed robbers, but their "adventures" take place at sea. And their in lies the answer to the original question--terrorist's objectives are typically to destroy people or property for political or emotional reasons, whereas pirates are all about financial gain.

With all of the negative press about the Somali Coast pirates, I'm expecting the "professional protesters" of the politcal correctness wing to start making a fuss about pirate movies, pirate costumes, and most of all, pirate mascots. You know who I'm talking about, the people who are "offended" by almost anything and consider everything an insult to someone. They have successfully had several mascots changed, and unbelievably convinced enough people that the Chief symbol for Illinois was somehow offensive. Well, they have excess time on their hands now, and I am peering into my crystal ball and guessing that pirates will be the next thing that ruffles their uber-sensitive feathers. This will, of course, go beyond the Pittsburgh baseball club, East Carolina University, and numerous high schools. It will also include any vikings, buccaneers, corsairs, and even raiders. There are three NFL teams right there, so maybe the Redskins and Chiefs can get a little relief.

Now this political correctness "stuff" reminds me of the recent uproar regarding Joe Biden's purchase of a german sheperd puppy from a breeder. I know...you are all offended just by reading that sentence ;) But seriously, the ruckus apparently was related to the fact that he didn't get a dog from a shelter. Now I like dogs, and I very much support the work that shelters do to save, protect, and relocate lost and unwanted animals. But a small, radical fringe group of animal lovers has gone too far in protesting when someone buys a pet from breeder. They have actually severely harassed the breeder, their family, and other local breeders in this case. I even heard the expression "buy a breeder dog, kill a stray." The logic is so ridiculous that I suggest they live by the saying "eat food, kill a starving child." Like I said, these people can be offended by almost anything! (And you have to admire how the Obama's skillfully avoided this controversy by receiving their dog as a gift).

So that got me to thinking, what are we going to do when the professional protesters turn up the heat on our beloved local high school Pirates? After ten years of hassle, they will likely wear down the local school board into making a change in an effort to not offend anyone. My suggestion for a new mascot...the Rescue Dogs (Mighty Rescue Dogs?, Fightin' Rescue Pups?). This should finally please everyone, FOREVER!!

And what about our crosstown rival Vikings? I think Stray Mutts would fit very nicely.

Dakota's Top Ten List

Dakota's Top Ten Things to play with:

10. rawhide bone

9. Pepsi bottle (2 liter)

8. tire rope toy

7. Izzo (rope toy with green & white MSU colors-pic above)

6. Elizabeth's snuggie (pic to right)

5. any miscellaneos thread, leaf or paper on the floor

4. Erin's feet

3. purple rope/heart tug toy

2. tennis ball

1a. squeakie football

1. pheasant (goose, duck, whatever-top & bottom pic)

Snow Day

In like a Lion, out like...an even bigger Lion? The morning of March 29 greeted us with a couple of inches of wet, heavy snow. So after the kids excitedly cleared the driveway and sidewalks, it was time for Dakota's first experience with snow.

He was fairly tentative at first. But once he figured out he could put snow in his mouth, he began to run around like most pups in the snow.

Dakota - 12 weeks

Dakota has learned the magical wonders of stairs. They are not just to transcend levels, but also a playground and a great place to perch and watch where everyone is going. He is not deathly afraid of the outdoors like he was at first, but he is still pretty skittish about wind and anything that makes noise. But the upside is there are 10.000 new things to put in his mouth. Ahhh, puppies.

New Arrival

The newest addition to the household was born on December 29, 2008. He is nine weeks old in these pictures and is named Dakota. He is a Shetland Sheepdog (Sheltie). More to follow....


















He is the one in the middle with two of his brothers. The last picture is his Mom, Sassy.

Hmmmm

So the newspaper says that a US commercial satellite and a "non-functional" Russian satellite "accidentally" collided in space yesterday. Why do I think there is a lot more to the story. I'm feeling a new Tom Clancy novel about to roll off the presses.

With all of the space technology available, I find it odd that the flight paths of a fairly small number of known space objects would intersect unknowingly. It shows how vulnerable all of our satellite technology (television, gps, etc.) is to both unintentional and hostile threats. In fact, China tested its sophisticated anti-satellite missile technology in 2007 by shooting down one of its older weather satellites. I imagine there are a dozen countries with missile technology that could take out existing satellites.

Super Bowl Ads

Happy Groundhog's Day!
While the end of the Super Bowl was certainly exciting, I know many of you really prefer to watch the commercials. Like any year, there were some very good ads and there were others that make you wonder why companies waste the money. Here are my favorites:

1. E*Trade baby (the one after the game).


2. Bridgestone Mr. Potato Head.

2009 Super Bowl Ads SPIKE.com

3. Pepsi (MacGruber).

Pepsi-Cola Super Bowl Ads SPIKE.com

4. Doritos.

Doritos Super Bowl Ads SPIKE.com

Honorable mention goes to the Budweiser "fetch" commercial and the ad for Hulu. I enjoyed some of the movie promos that seemed much more abundant this year, but I hate it when they advertise movies that are months away from hitting theaters. If you like the Etrade baby, their website has some other clips and out-takes that did not show up in commercials. Pretty funny.

Training Supplement

I have used a training supplement called Dihydrogen Monoxide for as long as I can remember. It is all natural, completely legal, and it is relatively inexpensive. No athlete has ever been suspended or banned for using this, and it is so common that they don't even test for it.

I don't usually do this, but I am recommending that anyone who does regular exercise make DHMO a regular part of their routine. If you already use this supplement, I recommend increasing your intake. As many of you know, I have started my annual triathlon training cycle and I have increased my use of this supplement. I'm already noticing the benefits and I haven't had a sub-par workout yet. This supplement comes in different forms, but I prefer the liquid over the solid form.

As with any supplement DHMO is not perfect. Side effects may include bloating, more frequent urination, loss of appetite, and occasionally nausea or even death if it is overused. Accidentally inhaling too much DHMO can also be fatal. Even though small quantities are generally harmless to humans, it is also used in industrial solvents and as a fire retardant, and also is known to accelerate corrosion and rusting of many metals.

Even given the potential negative consequences, I still feel the positives far outweigh any unlikely problems you might encounter. I will get off of my soapbox now, but if anyone needs help finding where to get DMHO, let me know and I will be happy to assist.

This supplement also goes under the names Hydrogen Hydroxide or H2O.

Movie Review +

SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

Closet hit Slumdog Millionaire is a fast moving, intense story about a boy from the slums of Mumbai who finds success on the gameshow "Who Wants to be a Millionaire?" Intertwined is the romantic subplot of this boy (Jamal) trying to relocate his childhood friend/sweetheart Latika in this city of 20 million people.

The story is told in flashback from the police station where Jamal is being brutally questioned on suspicion of cheating on the gameshow. It originates with Jamal and brother Salim as young school children in the putrid back alleys of the dangerous slums of Mumbai. They meet Latika after they are orphaned and their journey continues through garbage dumps and an orphanage before they are separated from her. The present and the past are weaved together as the movie shows the events in Jamal's life that give him the knowledge to be able to answer the diverse questions on the show.

While it is only January, I am going to guess this Bollywood effort is the best movie I will see this year. It is a wonderful story about engaging characters set in the harsh and vivid backdrop of crime, squalor, and human cruelty to one another. I reflect upon it frequently and recommend it to anyone who wants to see a serious and entertaining film. It is rated R for some violence against children and mature subject matter.

Notes: Slumdog only finished 11th in the box office tally this weekend, and has only garnered $34 million so far after being in limited release since November. It appeared on 601 screens this weekend compared to 2,500 or more for the top grossing films (Four Christmases is still on 777 screens!). People are heading out to see it, because my neck is still sore after being forced to sit in the front row of the crowded theater. Mumbai (formerly Bombay) is the 6th largest city in the world and approximately twice the population of the Chicago metropolitan area. A dollar is worth about 49 rupees at today's exchange rate, so one million rupees is about $20,000 and rs 20 million is a little more than $400k. Congrats to everyone involved on their Golden Globe awards. I suspect there will be many more.

OTHER TOPICS

What they really meant to say was.... When Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and #2 man Dick Durbin (D-IL) said they would never seat a Senator appointed by tainted Illinois Gov. Rod Blagoblahblahvich, what they really meant was this: they would huff and puff, but they would seat him if they negotiated something in return (Harry Reid is ironically hilarious) or if they received enough political pressure to have this cleared up before the inaguaration. And what about that signature they required on a certification from Illinois Secretary of State Jesse White? After the courts ruled he wasn't legally required to sign it (and why would he be ?!?), Sen. Durbin apparently was willing to accept anything anyone could show him with Mr. White's autograph.

Useless trivia.... Apparently A1 Steaksauce derives it's name from King George IV of England. After it was served to him by his chef, he proclaimed it to be "A1!"

YouTube alert.... I am told there is a video of George (my friend, not the King) doing the "magic baby" dance in Indiana Hoosier warmups out there somewhere, but I have not been able to locate it yet.