Kentucky Derby 2010

Another year, another Kentucky Derby where the best horse goes out with an injury just days before the race. Eskendereya was a solid pick this year, but a swollen ankle will keep him out for at least a few weeks. Perhaps we will see him in the Preakness or Belmont??

It appears to me this year's Derby is filled with second tier contenders and several wannabes up to the max of 20 horses. You can find something to not love about every horse...but someone will still win over a weak field. The track will probably be sloppy again this year which will open the door for a possible big longshot like Mine That Bird last year.

I'm taking a different approach this year: I will explain why most of the horses won't win the race, and share my thoughts on my prime contenders at the bottom of this post. This, of course, sets me up to possibly "George" this year's race if the winner comes from my early throw-aways.

Some of the factors I look at include: breeding, performance on dirt tracks, performance around two turns (especially at CD), dual qualifiers (statistical analyses based on breeding and early career achievement), top speed performance, running style, and time since last race.

Voted least likely to succeed:

Back Talk-Likes the muddy tracks, but too slow and won't like longer distance.

Paddy O'Prado-Grass horse. Never won on dirt. Probably never will, but the owners get to party at the Derby.

Stately Victor-Woke up on the poly track in the Blue Grass Stakes, but shown nothing on dirt. Pass.

Line of David-I really tried to like this one because of the name, but I can't. Breeding and front-running style say "no" to finding the winner's circle in this one. But I will still have $2 on him to win.

Conveyance-Another front-runner with weak distance breeding.

Dean's Kitten-Another turf horse. Will like the distance, but not much else.

Homeboykris-Hasn't raced since February, and won last in October.

Make Music for Me-A dual qualifier, but hasn't raced on dirt and was beaten badly last race.

Noble's Promise-A popular pick of veteran horse players, but he is too slow for me.

Sidney's Candy-2nd favorite in the morning line, I thought I would throw him out early to make this interesting. Another with front running style and questionable distance breeding, he has never run on dirt. Drew the 20 post to ice him as a non-factor.

These ones have a chance to make an impact:

Ice Box-Late running style fits here, but may not be fast enough in this crowd.

Devil May Care-Dual qualifier with good distance breeding and recent performances. But inconsistent, and filly has never raced against the boys. Not in the same class as other star fillies like Rachel Alexandra, Winning Colors, etc.

Dublin-Meets most of the success factors for Derby winners, but just hasn't run fast enough to be a prime contender.

American Lion-Another popular pick who has shown versatility, but has also been too slow to rate as a serious contender here.

Mission Impazible-La Derby winner is hot at the right time, but can he get the distance?

Prime Contenders:

4 Super Saver-Top pick is 15-1 on the morning line. Has won around two turns at Churchill Downs, been sharp in his prep races this year, has strong distance breeding, and has won on a sloppy track. Not a stand-out in a stronger year, but has enough to do the job in this field.

1 Lookin At Lucky-Dual qualifier who likes to win races. Rallied from significant trouble in his last race to finish an impressive 3rd. Has been the fastest horse so far. Legit favorite. Worried that he likes to "find trouble" and the inside post won't help him in that regard.

15 Discreetly Mine-Another dual qualifier who has raced well this year and should like the longer distance. A clean trip could put him in position to win coming down the stretch.

16 Awesome Act-Yet another dual qualifier (more than usual this year), this 30-1 longshot meets most of the success factors for Derby winners...if he can get the distance.

LONGSHOT SPECIAL

13 Jackson Bend-Never worse than 2nd in nine races, this ultra consistent grinder will be overlooked by most, but has a lot of factors in his favor. I don't think he will win, but a place or show wager could prove quite profitable to his backers while everyone else fawns over the winner.