Kentucky Derby

DERBY 2009

Here are the horses I see as the prime contenders to WIN the race:

13 I Want Revenge This is the fastest horse, he has won on the dirt, and he has won on both coasts. His running style fits this race and his Apr. 28 workout at Churchill was sharp. He fits the profile of previous Derby winners and is a dual qualifier (related to distance breeding and accomplishment). Only concern is 19 yr. old jockey (Talamo), but the great ones are often great early. This horse deserves to be the favorite, but 3-1 is not that attractive for a horse that has not dominated to this point like Big Brown did last year.

16 Pioneerof the Nile Another California horse that has been winning big races, but has not raced on dirt (has won on turf and poly). He was beating I Want Revenge this winter in California on poly, but his speed numbers have not improved as much since then. Tough to say how poly impacts the speed numbers. Sire Empire Maker finished 2nd to Funny Cide in the Derby and came back to beat him in the Belmont. Auxilary gate start doesn't help, but this one has a great chance if he likes dirt. Also a dual qualifier. 5-1 morning line odds looks fair.

11 Chocolate Candy Another California horse that has not raced on dirt. Doesn't have quite the record of the first two, but has been winning. Last was a close 2nd to Pioneerof the Nile at Santa Anita. He is the 3rd of 4 dual qualifiers, and I can't believe his 20-1 odds. Fits the Giacomo profile, and will be charging hard down the stretch. Strong Churchill work on Apr. 27. Definite contender.

6 Friesan Fire Yes, I am aware of horses outside of California, and this one has won on the dirt. Three straight wins in Louisiana, and an eye-popping workout on Apr. 27 at Churchill. NOT a dual qualifier, but excellent breeding and has the racing background to fit with Derby contenders. Has had an unusually long 7 week rest since last race, and making a bigger distance stretch than the other contenders. 5-1 odds, and this one would be more appealing at 8-1 or higher.

Others to consider. While I think the winner will come from my prime contenders list, this group has a legitimate chance to win or finish in the money at long odds.

10 Regal Ransom Longshot alert. This horse won at Saratoga, raced once in California, and shipped to the United Arab Emirates for the winter. He won the UAE Derby in March, and his Churchill workouts have been great. No horse has ever won the Derby shipping from the middle east, but this one has a chance. Same sire as Funny Cide, and the 30-1 odds may end up higher. Definite threat to be in the money.

7 Papa Clem Has won on dirt and poly, including quality stakes score in Arkansas last race. Doesn't quite fit the "winner" profile, but strong breeding and 2nd place finishes to Pioneer and Friesan, along with his recent stakes win, show he is competitive with this group. 20-1.

1 West Side Bernie Last of the dual qualifiers, and was 2nd last time out to I Want Revenge. Hasn't won since September and inside post position not favorable in this race. 30-1 odds make him worth a consideration, but would be a little surprised if he is a major factor.

Is there anything to like about the other 13 horses?

Yes, but not enough for me to consider risking my mint julip money. Dunkirk has top breeding and was bought for $3.7 million. He is lightly raced and doesn't fit the profile of past winners. Not worth the 4-1 odds here. I think he will be a top horse...after he gets more experience. General Quarters, Musket Man, and Advice are all coming off stakes wins, but I don't think any of them have the speed or the profile to be serious threats here. Their wins, however, have moved their odds to the 20-1 range for horses that should probably be 40-1. Hold Me Back and Mr. Hot Stuff have good trainer/jockey combinations, but just haven't run to the level of the others at this point. The other seven have too many factors against them (post position, profile, etc.) or just simply don't belong here.

A tip of the cap to The Pamplemousse who is injured, but may have been my top pick. Look for him racing later this year.

Good Luck to Everyone!

Pirates

A friend asked the other day about why pirates are not called terrorists. My first thought was that it's because we have a romanticized view of swashbuckling buccaneers swinging onto a ship's deck. Pirates are really nothing more than armed robbers, but their "adventures" take place at sea. And their in lies the answer to the original question--terrorist's objectives are typically to destroy people or property for political or emotional reasons, whereas pirates are all about financial gain.

With all of the negative press about the Somali Coast pirates, I'm expecting the "professional protesters" of the politcal correctness wing to start making a fuss about pirate movies, pirate costumes, and most of all, pirate mascots. You know who I'm talking about, the people who are "offended" by almost anything and consider everything an insult to someone. They have successfully had several mascots changed, and unbelievably convinced enough people that the Chief symbol for Illinois was somehow offensive. Well, they have excess time on their hands now, and I am peering into my crystal ball and guessing that pirates will be the next thing that ruffles their uber-sensitive feathers. This will, of course, go beyond the Pittsburgh baseball club, East Carolina University, and numerous high schools. It will also include any vikings, buccaneers, corsairs, and even raiders. There are three NFL teams right there, so maybe the Redskins and Chiefs can get a little relief.

Now this political correctness "stuff" reminds me of the recent uproar regarding Joe Biden's purchase of a german sheperd puppy from a breeder. I know...you are all offended just by reading that sentence ;) But seriously, the ruckus apparently was related to the fact that he didn't get a dog from a shelter. Now I like dogs, and I very much support the work that shelters do to save, protect, and relocate lost and unwanted animals. But a small, radical fringe group of animal lovers has gone too far in protesting when someone buys a pet from breeder. They have actually severely harassed the breeder, their family, and other local breeders in this case. I even heard the expression "buy a breeder dog, kill a stray." The logic is so ridiculous that I suggest they live by the saying "eat food, kill a starving child." Like I said, these people can be offended by almost anything! (And you have to admire how the Obama's skillfully avoided this controversy by receiving their dog as a gift).

So that got me to thinking, what are we going to do when the professional protesters turn up the heat on our beloved local high school Pirates? After ten years of hassle, they will likely wear down the local school board into making a change in an effort to not offend anyone. My suggestion for a new mascot...the Rescue Dogs (Mighty Rescue Dogs?, Fightin' Rescue Pups?). This should finally please everyone, FOREVER!!

And what about our crosstown rival Vikings? I think Stray Mutts would fit very nicely.

Dakota's Top Ten List

Dakota's Top Ten Things to play with:

10. rawhide bone

9. Pepsi bottle (2 liter)

8. tire rope toy

7. Izzo (rope toy with green & white MSU colors-pic above)

6. Elizabeth's snuggie (pic to right)

5. any miscellaneos thread, leaf or paper on the floor

4. Erin's feet

3. purple rope/heart tug toy

2. tennis ball

1a. squeakie football

1. pheasant (goose, duck, whatever-top & bottom pic)