
Preakness
Congratulations to Mine That Bird on his surprising victory in the Kentucky Derby. Rarely does a horse pass 18 others on a muddy track to win a horse race! If they run that race 100 times, I doubt he wins more than twice. But he did win the one that counts!
Preakness fun fact: Calvin Borel will ride filly Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness after piloting winner Mine That Bird in the Ky Derby. No other jockey in the 100+ year history has switched from the Derby winner to a different horse in the Preakness. (Calvin is honoring his commitment as the "permanent" rider on Rachel).My thoughts on the Preakness:
The Derby winner often comes back to score in the Preakness, only to stumble in the Belmont marathon 3 weeks later. I don't think that will happen this year. While Mine That Bird is probably a better horse than most people thought (or than he showed in his first year of racing), it is unlikely the events will unfold for him as they did two weeks ago. Plus, the addition of super-filly Rachel Alexandra brings in a higher level competitor than most Derby winners have to face.
The Preakness often plays closer to form than the other triple crown races, and that is likely this year as well. I agree with the oddsmaker's assessment that Mine That Bird only merits third choice behind Rachel Alexandra and Pioneerof the Nile.
13. Rachel Alexandra She was not an unknown when she went off as the prohibitive 2-5 favorite in the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs on the eve of the Derby. For those who don't like to bet favorites, it must have been painful to watch her destroy the field by over 20 lengths.
9. Pioneerof the Nile It looked like he was set up to win the Derby, but could not match the winner's finishing kick after he was near the front for the quick 47.2 opening half mile. Obviously took to the dirt fine, and would likely be the favorite if Rachel was not here. Very consistent horse should be there right to the end and has a fighting chance to win here.
2. Mine That Bird The thing I like best about this one is that Derby winners do often come right back and win this race. But it is hard for me to see this race breaking the same way, although the weather forecast may provide the sloppy track again. This horse has only one win outside of Canada and a new jockey for this race. I suspect he will be disrespected again, so play him if you like to root for underdogs.
7. Papa Clem One of the horses I backed in the Derby, he finished a nice 4th at 12-1. Never quite put it all together that day, but he is likely to be overlooked here even though he was less than a half length back to Pioneer in the Derby. Value play.
1. Big Drama Popular upset pick, he scored a very fast victory in a 7f stakes race last time out at Gulfstream (but was DQed to 2nd). This frontrunner has crossed the finish line first in 6 straight races, so he know how to win. Should lead for much of the race unless he gets pinched at the start.
11. Take the Points This horse will be ignored, but I suspect he will be a live longshot who will be in the mix all race. Could be 30-1 or more, so if you like to play longshots this is your horse.
In summary, Rachel looks to be a special horse. If she runs her race she will be tough to beat.
Pioneer, Papa Clem, and Take the Points all look to offer good value to win or in exotics with Rachel. What about Derby favorite Friesan Fire? Good question. I wrote that I would like him better in the Derby at 8-1 or better, and I would like to see 15-1 or better here to get interested. I suspect he will get some interest because he was the Derby chalk, but I think I will leave him out because of the tough field and the possibility that his form is off. Enjoy the race!